The law of large numbers and the average man

Bernoulli proves the law of large numbers; Quetelet turns the tool on people and produces l'homme moyen — the average man, who exists nowhere and describes everyone. His claim is that next year's murders can be counted before anyone commits them. He was right.

In plain words

Bernoulli proves the law of large numbers, and Quetelet turns it on people: the average man, who exists nowhere and describes everyone, and the claim, borne out, that next year's murders can be counted before anyone commits them. This is where “the model says” gets its chair.

The mechanism

A POPULATION BECOMES A CURVE, AND A CURVE READS FORWARD — this is where the model says gets its chair

How it was checked

• EvidenceT5 INDEPENDENT SECULAR; Status: COMMITTED; a capture
• Letter eraTHE SEAT MOVES TO THE BENCH 1713 to 1945
• Plate — Jakob Bernoulli, Ars Conjectandi, title page, Basel, 1713 · Fondazione Mansutti, Milan · Public domain · source: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bernoulli_-_Ars_conjectandi,_1713_-_058.tif
• SourcesSECULAR RECORD — Ars Conjectandi 1713; Essai de physique sociale 1835